Analysts from investment bank Saxo Bank warned that the world economy and politics are out of sync than ever and markets face major geopolitical risks that may be aggravated by the reduction in oil prices.
Experts point out that at the moment inflation is one of the lowest levels in recent decades, although in most advanced economies, monetary policy is highly expansionary, and in emerging markets is restrictive. Fed is the only central bank in the developed economies, which is expected to begin a restrictive cycle soon, probably around mid-year. According to Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, balancing the world economy in 2015 will require countering the slowdown in emerging markets cope with deflation and confronting the growing percentage of debt to the gross domestic product.
According to him "the path of least resistance in 2015 was the lower dollar stable to slightly higher energy prices and interest rates unchanged." However, the point of maximum displacement resulting from the continuing trends that began in 2014, will be visible in the first quarter of 2015 as the European Central Bank to take risks controversial decision to introduce a new program of quantitative easing.
According to Saxo Bank currency markets will face significant volatility in 2015. The most likely trend is the weakening of the US dollar, although it is expected that the appreciation of the currency to continue in the first quarter. Analysts warn of possible currency wars, especially in Asia.
The bank forecasts the world economy to grow by 3% in 2015 compared to 2.2% in 2014 due to lower energy prices, the lighter austerity measures in developed economies and higher growth trade. Experts of the financial institution are of the opinion that the greatest risk to global growth in 2015 will have geopolitical tensions. Saxo Bank expects the US economy to grow by about 3% in 2015 in the euro area by 1%, while growth in China to slow to 6.7% despite the stimulus measures taken by Beijing. Despite the relatively low growth rate in the euro area in 2015, Saxo Bank provides the Member - States of the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe, to lead the growth of GDP in the year.